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Why Verizon Should Be Worried

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Motorola Droid: iPhone Killer?

Ken Dulaney with Gartner predicts that by 2012, Android will grab the No. 2 spot in the global smartphone market (Android is currently 6th place).  Dulaney goes on and says “because Android and Google operate in an integrative and open environment, [they] could easily top … the singular Apple.

It is easy to see why the experts believe at some point Android will pass the iPhone – it works on several different manufacturers’ phones.  This way to market is what excelled the PC past the Mac in the desktop computing wars.  However does this translate to the mobile phone market?


I would agree that Android can overtake the iPhone.  However the only way this will happen by 2012 is if there is an Android phone that is at least equivalent to the iPhone in the next year.  I have spoken to several colleagues, friends and family that told me the only reason they don’t have an iPhone yet is because they are on the Verizon network.  They then go on to tell me that once their contract is up they will be switching to AT&T and the iPhone.

I would have to imagine this scares Verizon more than it scares Google.  Once people switch networks to AT&T they might be there for a while.   Clark Wimberly with Android and Me noted that HTC already has an Android phone in the works for the AT&T network.  This gives AT&T customers that are sick of the iPhone the option to change to Android.  However as everybody knows there is still no iPhone on the Verizon network, so less people will probably be switching from AT&T to Verizon.

I think what this really means about the 2012 prediction is that it might be too soon.  Sure people in the next year with expiring contracts that move to the iPhone will have expiring contracts that are up again in 2012, but will the buzz of the Android phones be strong enough at that point to convince someone to change?

Either way if there is not an Android phone that is released in the next year that can pull its weight, we will continue to see the mass exodus to AT&T and the iPhone.  That will mean that many more people will go away from Verizon and it will also mean the iPhone users will be locked into that dreaded two year contract.  This will keep people on the AT&T network that much longer.

If I was Verizon I would be doing whatever possible to get the iPhone.  It might even be a smart move for Apple to partner with Verizon as this could totally stomp out the other budding smartphones.  It would be in the best interest for both Google and AT&T to have the exclusive deal between AT&T and Apple to remain.  You have to wonder how much money AT&T is forking over to Apple for exclusive rights.  That number has to be mind-blowing!

If the Droid phone is not a success, Verizon should be very worried.  As this is maybe their last chance to save a portion of their customers from changing to AT&T.


Written by wirebear

November 2, 2009 at 8:44 pm

The New Generation of Smartphones

with one comment

Interesting chart from BillShrink that compares the iPhone, Palm Pre, MyTouch and Motorola Droid:



Smartphone Comparison Chart


Written by wirebear

October 30, 2009 at 11:55 pm

Posted in Cell Phones

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